Changed dynamics: On India and the Trump administration
India must chart a new transactional course with the Trump administration
The first 48 hours of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term have been proof of the radical shifts he plans over four years, with the overarching theme of putting “America First”. While the strengthening of India-U.S. ties during his first term should give those in New Delhi attempting to strategise for this term some comfort, his moves now make it clear that it will be necessary to expect the unexpected as well. The slew of Executive Orders changes U.S. policy on energy, the environment and climate change, trade and global taxes, citizenship routes, health, border control and immigration. But the new administration has shown it is keen to engage India: External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, who was invited along with other Quad Foreign Ministers at the inaugural ceremony, was the first Foreign Minister to hold a one-on-one bilateral meeting with new U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The readout of their meeting and the Quad Foreign Ministers’ joint statement make it clear that the two sides are on the same page on the Indo-Pacific partnership, concerns over Chinese actions, critical and emerging technology cooperation, strategic and defence ties. Yet, some Trump-Rubio pronouncements have set alarm bells ringing, notably on trade, immigration and the cancellation of citizenship by birth. On trade, India has escaped being named in the first round of tariff announcements, but Mr. Trump’s comments on a “100% tariff” against all members of the BRICS emerging economies grouping raised the suspense and a possible market reaction. In his first term, he had withdrawn India’s GSP status affecting Indian exporters. On immigration, he has announced a “border emergency”, authorised a crackdown on illegal and undocumented migrants, and plans to crush the hopes of H-1B visa holders and other Indians working there, by cancelling the automatic path to citizenship for any children born to them in the U.S. With 7,25,000 undocumented Indians, any action to deport them in large numbers, beginning with about 18,000-20,000 on the Immigration “final list for removal”, will be a major crisis for India.
In this context, Mr. Rubio’s statement in talks with Mr. Jaishankar that they must address the “irregular migration” should be taken seriously. So too should Mr. Trump’s pronouncements insisting on investments in the U.S., hiring in the U.S., and the buying of U.S. energy. The new administration’s geopolitical outlook appears to be set on devaluing the multilateral world order, withdrawing from U.S. commitments of support to WHO, the WTO, and the UN, and putting NATO allies on notice. Given the signs, New Delhi must be prepared for a U.S. administration that will not be particularly sensitive to India’s concerns or be a willing partner in India’s growth unless it sees a benefit for itself, and instead chart a more transactional course, while moving to limit the damage from any adverse actions of the Trump era.
Vocabulary
Dynamics
- Translation: Dinámicas-गतिकी
- Synonyms: Forces, mechanisms, interactions
Transactional
- Translation: Transaccional-लेन-देन संबंधी
- Synonyms: Exchange-based, commercial, business-related
Radical
- Translation: Radical-मौलिक
- Synonyms: Extreme, fundamental, revolutionary
Overarching
- Translation: Abrangente-विस्तृत
- Synonyms: Comprehensive, all-encompassing, overarching
Strengthening
- Translation: Fortalecimiento-को सुदृढ़
- Synonyms: Reinforcing, enhancing, bolstering
Strategise
- Translation: Estrategizar-रणनीति
- Synonyms: Plan, devise, formulate
Comfort
- Translation: Comodidad-आराम
- Synonyms: Ease, solace, reassurance
Slew
- Translation: Gran cantidad-बड़ी मात्रा
- Synonyms: A lot, multitude, plethora
Trade
- Translation: Comercio-व्यापार
- Synonyms: Exchange, commerce, business
Citizenship
- Translation: Ciudadanía-सिटिज़नशिप
- Synonyms: Nationality, membership, civil status
Immigration
- Translation: Inmigración-अप्रवासन
- Synonyms: Migration, resettlement, relocation
Engage
- Translation: Involucrar-शामिल होना
- Synonyms: Involve, participate, connect
Along with
- Translation: Junto con-साथ में
- Synonyms: Together with, in addition to, as well as
Inaugural
- Translation: Inaugural-उद्घाटन
- Synonyms: Initial, first, opening
Ceremony
- Translation: Ceremonia-समारोह
- Synonyms: Event, ritual, observance
Statement
- Translation: Declaración- घोषणा
- Synonyms: Declaration, announcement, assertion
Cooperation
- Translation: Cooperación-सहयोग
- Synonyms: Collaboration, partnership, teamwork
Emerging
- Translation: Emergente-आकस्मिक
- Synonyms: Developing, rising, nascent
Ties
- Translation: Vínculos-लिंक
- Synonyms: Connections, links, relationships
Pronouncements
- Translation: Pronunciamientos-बयान
- Synonyms: Declarations, announcements, statements
Escaped
- Translation: Escapado-बच निकला
- Synonyms: Fled, evaded, broke free
Against
- Translation: Contra-विपरीत
- Synonyms: Opposed to, in opposition to, versus
Raised
- Translation: Levantado-ऊपर
- Synonyms: Elevated, lifted, increased
Suspense
- Translation: Suspenso-निलंबित
- Synonyms: Uncertainty, tension, anticipation
Affecting
- Translation: Afectando-प्रभावित करने वाले
- Synonyms: Influencing, impacting, touching
Authorised
- Translation: Autorizado-अधिकृत
- Synonyms: Permitted, approved, sanctioned
Migrants
- Translation: Migrantes-प्रवासियों
- Synonyms: Immigrants, expatriates, newcomers
Beginning
- Translation: Comienzo-शुरुआत
- Synonyms: Start, initiation, onset
Address
- Translation: Abordar-दृष्टिकोण
- Synonyms: Tackle, deal with, discuss
Seriously
- Translation: Seriosamente-गंभीरता से
- Synonyms: Gravely, earnestly, sincerely
Insisting
- Translation: Insistiendo-जोर देते हुए
- Synonyms: Persisting, demanding, asserting
Outlook
- Translation: Perspectiva-परिप्रेक्ष्य
- Synonyms: View, perspective, forecast